What we do about COVID-19

"facw" (facw)
03/20/2020 at 01:09 • Filed to: covid-19, coronavirus, coronalopnik

I wanted to share this article which is an excellent read on the topic:

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Link in case of Kinja: !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!!

It’s long, but well worth it. It explains some of the things that have come up in discussion earlier today (yesterday for me I guess), including why governments are responding the way they are, how long lock downs might have to last, whether we are just shifting the problem forward, whether we can count on eventual immunity and so forth.

I think it’s a pretty solid and well reasoned piece. I think there are some valid criticisms you could make but most revolve around the extreme uncertainty of the situation, which fits into the overall argument that it’s better to have more time now.

DISCUSSION (32)

LastFirstMI is my name > facw
03/20/2020 at 01:16

Thanks, I was just looking for this article to share!

Nick Has an Exocet > facw
03/20/2020 at 01:17

The part of this that no one can answer but is the most important thing in the universe to answer is: how long?

Because we cannot, absolutely cannot, ban gatherings indefinitely .

ClassicDatsunDebate > facw
03/20/2020 at 01:18

Well I hate to say it and I mean it with all respect but I kinda think that the US’s healthcare system isn’t designed to deal with an issue that requires a socialized response to a problem. I kinda have the feeling that you guys are gonna bare the brunt of it. Fucking sucks but it seems like keystone cops compared to other parts of the world.

SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media > facw
03/20/2020 at 01:22

Dance? I don’t expect you to dance, Mr Bond. I expect you to die!

[all apologies to whomsoever wrote those lines which I have just paraphrased for my own entertainment]

SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media > Nick Has an Exocet
03/20/2020 at 01:26

It depends how smashed you get in the first wave and how well your health system copes with that. I would suggest you ask again in a fortnight...

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > ClassicDatsunDebate
03/20/2020 at 01:26

Are you alleging that healthcare is basically a luxury good in America?! That’s the most outrageous — no wait, it’s true

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media
03/20/2020 at 01:40

Talk to me in two weeks.

SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
03/20/2020 at 01:49

Already in my diary...

VincentMalamute-Kim > facw
03/20/2020 at 02:08

Thank you.

DipodomysDeserti > facw
03/20/2020 at 02:08

Just a heads up that the graph is based on the analysis of data by the author. While the author does hold engineering degrees, his bio lists him as a “creator of viral application”.

Sorry, but I have better use of my time than to read epidemiology analysis by a tech bro.

The people who actually know how to analyze this data and create solutions aren’t writing blog posts. Let them finish their work. People thinking they know more than they do, and readers not checking sources is going to lead to bad decision making.

So, I have a health sciences BS and am currently working on an MS at an engineering school. A toxicology course was required for my MS, and all the engineering students in it struggled. Hard. Same with my current Algal Biosystems course. Understanding biological systems is an entirely different ballgame, and you really should only be consuming info from people that know them.

I don’t know for sure, but I believe our chariot bound brother could drop buckets of knowledge on us. However, most people that smart are smart enough not to talk if they don’t have all the data and analysis.

gettingoldercarguy > Nick Has an Exocet
03/20/2020 at 02:08

Huh?

DipodomysDeserti > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/20/2020 at 02:09

And yet we largely treat our personal health as if we have socialized medicine!

promoted by the color red > ClassicDatsunDebate
03/20/2020 at 04:33

It’s okay, we’re all going to buy guns and shoot the Corona virus.

duurtlang > DipodomysDeserti
03/20/2020 at 04:51

I have a masters degree in biology, and I mostly keep my mouth sh ut about these things. I l et the experts (which I am not) do their job .

Being able to qualify your own knowledge level about a certain subject seems like a lost art nowadays. Ask honest questions, refrain from rhetorical questions, don’t be too cocky when you barely know what you’re talking about.

ranwhenparked > SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media
03/20/2020 at 07:13

I don't think it does depend on that, there's a time limit on how long people will put up with it, regardless of how smashed the healthcare system gets. Whether it's necessary or not won't matter, people will get fed up and stop complying at a certain point and there aren't enough police or soldiers to stop everybody. Which will then worsen a second wave.

SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media > ranwhenparked
03/20/2020 at 07:34

Well...I’m quite happy I’m not in North America then, eh?

I don't wish to be that bastard but if a community can't work together to look after itself in its own best interests then it deserves its demise...

facw > DipodomysDeserti
03/20/2020 at 07:34

I’m aware.

Not having an advanced degree in the field is not an indication that you can’t have any idea what you are are talking about. If that was the case, pretty much all of journalism would be doomed.

More to the point, I don’t see this as a proposing a solution, but as an explanation for what we are seeing today, and why various choices are being made. Perhaps that is overly optimistic, but I certainly would like to be believe that governments are attempting these sorts of analysis and coming up with similar answers, leading to the actions being taken. That’s certainly a lot more comforting than the idea that they are flailing around in the dark.

And you say:

The people who actually know how to analyze this data and create solutions aren’t writing blog posts.

Maybe they should be?

TheRealBicycleBuck > DipodomysDeserti
03/20/2020 at 07:59

The funny thing about education is that the more you learn, the more you realize you don’t know. I learned enough about a bunch of different subjects to be conversant in most of them, but I realize that I’m not an expert in any of them. Unfortunately, our education system, especially at the master’s and Ph.D. levels, encourages specialization instead of generalization. A depth of knowledge is important, but we still need people who have a greater breadth of knowledge and we have to be willing to listen to them.

A great example of this is DaVinci. The man was brilliant. He made advances in physics, biology, chemistry, engineering, and art. He had insights in so many fields because he learned so much in so many fields. People recognize that today, but I wonder how many people dismissed his work simply because they didn’t think he knew enough in their particular field of study.

I hear this attitude all the time, especially when it comes to general studies in college. We hired a recent graduate a few months ago to help with the business side of the office. In nearly every conversation we had it rolled back around to how much time and money he “wasted” on general education studies. I finally cut him off and reminded him that he’s working in an architecture and engineering firm. He is expected to work with engineers, planners, architects, environmental specialists, biologists, and more. All people who have expertise, but also who have a common foundation in their education which allows them to have some understanding about the others’ field of expertise.

This is especially important when dealing with large, complex projects. A road isn’t just a way to move a vehicle. It’s a barrier to movement. It’s a conveyance for water. It has social and economic impacts, not just to the people who use it, but also to the people who live near it or perhaps used to live where the road now exists. It creates noise and pollution. It’s a complex system that impacts all of the complex systems around it.

As a biologist, you should be familiar with different population growth curves. We were all taught that population growth is a function of the initial population size, the reproductive rate, the death rate, and time. The graph the author produced is nothing new. It’s a typical population growth curve (logistics map).

But most people have never seen this !

Why? Because over half of the U.S. population has less than two years of college. Worldwide, the level of education is even lower. Most people don’t have enough biology in their education to reach the level of discussing population dynamics. As for that, m ost people don’t even have enough math to understand the graphs!

All that being said, I think it’s legitimate to criticize him for cutting off the other curves. They too will have a peak and will come back down again, if for no other reason than the host organism (us) will die off and the virus’ primary environment (us) will no longer be available. I would, as a scientist, prefer to see all of the information. But that isn’t what the general public needs to see in order to understand what they need to do. With that in mind, I don’t have a problem with what this fellow wrote. It may have some gaps, but the message is on point and he’s standing on the expertise provided by others.

As an aside, you might really enjoy Veri t asium’s video on the logistics map. It shows how different natural systems have underlying mathematics which tie them together.

PyramidHat > TheRealBicycleBuck
03/20/2020 at 08:26

Side question: how is a road a barrier to movement?

Also, been flying much? I haven t been up since the beginning of the year with work, working in the BMW and now working more with this COVID issue (I work in safety)

PyramidHat > SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media
03/20/2020 at 08:28

I go the other way: “do you expect me to talk?” “no, Mr. B ond, I expect you to...dance!”

ranwhenparked > SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media
03/20/2020 at 08:42

The community won't die, a certain percentage will, and the survivors will envy them

SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media > ranwhenparked
03/20/2020 at 08:58

That won't be a community...that will be a mob.

TheRealBicycleBuck > PyramidHat
03/20/2020 at 09:24

I’m glad you asked! Roads, depending on design, can act as both psychological and physical barriers to people, animals, and even water. For people, a wide, heavily trafficked road can be difficult to cross. This effectively splits neighborhoods and often creates economic disparities between the two sides. Ever heard the phrase, “wrong side of the tracks”? That’s a reflection of the economic divide created by a set of railroad tracks which are, effectively, a road for trains.

Many roads, being elevated with ditches on either side, create a physical barrier to water movement. Where once was overland flow during floods, now becomes concentrated, channelized flow. This change in water movement affects both the animals living on the land and the animals living in the waterways. Even during normal rainfall events, the road concentrates water and pushes it into the drainage system, changing the flow profile for the local streams. This can have dramatic effects on the species which can live in the streams. In my dissertation, I posited that roads are not conveyances for vehicles, they are an extension of the drainage system and should be treated as intermittent streams. The number of miles of roads within a watershed is a very good predictor of streamflow and future flooding.

You may remember me posting about the floods in the Baton Rouge area in 2016. A large part of that was caused by hwy 16 and hwy 42. Both roads are built on top of earth embankments. Essentially, these are levees. As water came down the Amite river, it was concentrated by the embankments and piled up on the north side of Port Vincent. It was forced westward where it eventually circumnavigated the levee system and flooded the areas to the south.

Kinja'd!!!

There were also complaints that I-12 acted as a barrier, flooding the Denham Springs area, but subsequent analyses showed that the area would have flooded whether I-12 was there or not.

Roads act as a physical barrier to animal movement. Even a simple two-lane country road is a death trap for animals trying to cross it. Typical victims include deer, turtles, opossum, raccoons, snakes, and birds. That’s just a small sampling of the victims. It’s a big enough problem that some places are creating wildlife crossings - culverts or bridges - specifically to mitigate against the loss of animal life.

Kinja'd!!!

Roads create gaps in landscapes that animals fear to cross. Imagine an arboreal species that will not move across an open space because it fears predation from birds. Some rabbits and rodents behave this way. When the forest is split by a road, that is an effective barrier to their movement. Speaking of birds, one study showed that the noise from a road was an effective barrier to bird movement. It was an innovative piece of work because they created a “phantom” road by playing recordings of road noise in an unblemished landscape and watched how the birds reacted. It’s amazing that an animal which can fly over the physical barrier is affected by just the noise. https://www.pnas.org/content/112/39/12105.full

There are many more examples, but I think you probably get the gist of it (and it’s likely you are tired of reading by now). If you really want more, there are plenty of articles out there about roads as barriers to movement. Perhaps this will spark an interest in landscape ecology!

Oh yeah, my flying has been limited lately too . Now that I’m back in Louisiana full-time, I need to find better options to rent. With the downturn in the economy, this might be the right time to buy!

Schaef_Camaero Z/28 > PyramidHat
03/20/2020 at 09:48

Not to speak for BicycleBuck, but think of all the roadkill you’ve seen. A road is a barrier to the movement of animals, and pedestrians too for that matter. Really it’s a barrier to anything not driving a vehicle.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media
03/20/2020 at 09:57

I was making a joke there. You said fortnite and I said two weeks just to be a troll. But yes, I agree with you 100%.

ranwhenparked > SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media
03/20/2020 at 11:39

Yep, once all of society crashes down, which it will if it has to stay totally shut down for a year. No country can survive that, none. Either the virus kills you and your problems are over forever, or you survive to find yourself with your life destroyed and living in a hell on earth with no chance of rebuilding. Personally, since I can't rely on the virus taking me, I'm going to have to do something else to make sure I'm not around for the aftermath if this goes on.

SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media > ranwhenparked
03/21/2020 at 05:26

Would you like a pair of rose coloured glasses like mine?

SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
03/21/2020 at 05:29

Ha...I said fortnight not fortnite. It’s a shame that Kinja can’t do accents....

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media
03/21/2020 at 08:11

When replied, I was dictating into my cell phone and Android chose that spelling for me. I knew that you were Aus tra lian and I was just trying to make a joke -- and sound obtuse -- when I said about two weeks. For my part, I am quite nervous about what the coming weeks hold in store.

SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
03/21/2020 at 18:14

With very good reason...I reckon.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media
03/21/2020 at 19:39

Are they reporting any cases in Australia yet?

SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
03/22/2020 at 02:33

Of course.

We’ve just been told this afternoon to preliminarily self isolate due to one of M’ladys colleagues having a suspect cold and fever.